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Monday, March 14 • 5:00pm - 6:00pm
A Twitter Based Prediction Market

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Information aggregation mechanisms are designed explicitly for collecting and aggregating dispersed information. A best example of utilizing such kind of "the wisdom of crowds" is prediction market. The purpose of our project is to suggest that carefully designed market mechanisms can elicit dispersed information, which will improve our prediction. In a prediction market, payoffs are tied to the outcomes of future events and one typically trades a security that pays $1 if a specified event occurs. Generally speaking, participants are compensated for accuracy in forecasting. Many business examples share the following characteristic: small bits and pieces of relevant information exists in the opinions and intuition of diverse individuals. The prediction markets will produce reliable forecasts about sales, financial and accounting results by gathering small pieces of  individual information. The development of the Internet provides us with a twitter based technology to design prediction markets. The information propagation in twitter community is a complex social network, and will  improve people's predictions in prediction markets. Session co-organized by the McCombs School of Business and the Center for Research in Electronic Commerce (CREC).

avatar for Liangfei Qiu

Liangfei Qiu

University of Texas at AustinLiangfei Qiu is a graduate student in economics from the University of Texas at Austin. His research interests include prediction markets, industrial organization, complex social networks and applications of game theory.
avatar for Huaxia Rui

Huaxia Rui

PhD StudentUniversity of Texas at Austin

Monday March 14, 2011 5:00pm - 6:00pm CDT
AT&T Conference Center, Room 203

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